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Monday 21 January 2019
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……How the sectors performed

The desired outcome for the institutional environment strategic area is for Namibia to be the most competitive economy in the SADC Region by 2017. Namibia however remains as the fourth most competitive economy in the SADC region, behind Mauritius, South Africa and Botswana according to World Economic Forum (WEF) rankings for 2015.
“The fact that the country’s ranking has remained static prior to NDP4 and during the four years of its implementation is of concern and calls for the review of the effectiveness of the strategies and programmes that have been implemented,” it noted.
The Energy sector’s desired outcome to increase baseload energy levels to more than 750MW remains out of reach as local energy production currently stands at 511MW from a baseline of 495.5MW in 2011, the report pointed out.
“The majority of the set targets in the energy sector were not met during the period under review. This is of concern as maximum energy demand was recorded at 596.8MW excluding the Skorpion Zinc mine and 656.8MW including the Mine in 2015.  There is a need for the sector to urgently implement measures to ensure local energy production using sustainable renewable energy solutions to secure electricity supply for the Namibian population,” it noted.
The report also highlighted the importance of adopting sustainable long term solution to address the water crisis. The sector is urged to accelerate the pace of implementing water desalination solutions and the sourcing of water from perennial rivers to secure water supply for the country.
Progress towards the logistics desired outcome to double cargo volumes (from those recorded in 2012) and make the port of Walvis Bay the preferred African port and logistics corridor by 2017 remains out of reach. It is reported that the total cargo volumes handled during the 2015/16 financial year amount to 5,701,225, far below the NDP4 target of doubling the 2011/12 financial cargo volumes which stood at 6,210,285.
The housing sector’s desired outcome to provide modern housing to 60 percent of the population remains out of reach as most of the key set targets for the period were not achieved, states the report.
“It is noted that the suspension of the Mass Housing Development Programme as well as negotiations with contractors and settlement claims from previous contracts have delayed progress and depleted funds allocated for further housing construction. The sector has however made progress in the servicing of land with the servicing of 6,230 erven out of a target of 7,000.”
The manufacturing strategic area’s desired outcome to see the contribution of general manufacturing to GDP increase in Namibia Dollar terms by 50 percent over the baseline figure of the 2010 National Accounts is unlikely to be achieved as well.
During 2015, according to the report, the manufacturing sector contracted recording a 7.1 percent decline compared to a decline of 2.1percent recorded in 2014.
The decline was attributed to in basic non-ferrous metals (13.7 percent), beverages (3.3 percent) and fish processing on shore (38.9 percent). Other subsectors such diamond processing (47.0 percent); rubber and plastic products (14.3 percent); textile and wearing apparel (12.8 percent), other food products (11.7 percent) and other manufacturing (7.4 percent) also recorded declines.
The agriculture strategic area’s targets is for the sector to grow by an average of 4.0 percent per annum over the NDP4 period, the sector has dismally underperformed as per the report, with the poor performance blamed mainly on the prevailing drought situation.
But during 2015, the agriculture sector is estimated to have recorded a decline of 10.3 percent compared to a growth of 11.1 percent recorded in 2014.
“Both the livestock and crop farming subsectors recorded declines of 14.0 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively. This can be attributed to the prevailing drought and the foot and mouth disease outbreak experienced in 2015.”
As for the health sector, the report notes that progress towards the desired outcome for the sector shows that Namibia’s current health-adjusted life expectancy stands at 58 from a baseline of 57 in 2011 (Demographic Health Survey, 2013.) “This places the NDP4 target of 59 within reach.”
The sector has submitted ASEP for 2015/16 against which progress is being reported. Overall performance of the Sector is satisfactory as some progress has been made on most of the indicators and targets set. However, it has been observed that to ensure food security there is a need to place additional hectares of land under irrigation and the sector has failed to achieve this as the targeted additional 1,000ha of land has not been irrigated.
The sector acquired 318, 444 hectares of land for resettlement purposes as well as 11 847 Tons of grain were produced and stored, exceeding the targets. However, only 56 previously disadvantaged landless Namibians were resettled out of the target of 94.
In trying to alleviate hunger the sector also subsidized 45, 729 households with inputs such as seeds and fertilizer, exceeding the 12, 000 target.
“Good progress has been reported towards the construction of the three Fresh produce hubs. However, it is worrisome that no progress was made on the 8000 subsistence farmers targeted to having access to credit.”
The report further noted that: “The target of debushing 3, 000 hectares of land was also not met. The Agriculture sector is estimated to have recorded a decline of 10.3 percent in real value added compared to a growth of 11.1 percent in real value added recorded in 2014. This could be attributed to both the livestock and crop farming subsectors that recorded declines of 14.0 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively. The poor performance in the sector can be attributed to the prevailing drought and the outbreak of food and mouth disease experienced during the reference period.”
It recommended that in order for the objective of the food security to be reached, Green Scheme farms require expansion for the planting of increased amounts of maize and wheat.
“This will also ensure that the annual production requirement of an estimated 50,000 tons is met. It is therefore recommended that the sector speed up the process of putting additional land under irrigation, to ensure that the targets are met as set and that food security is ensured.”
Despite the positive outlook for the health sector, it pointed out that infrastructure development is lagging behind and Government health care facilities remain in bad condition and therefore further efforts are required to ensure access to quality health care for all Namibians.
The overall assessment of the extreme poverty sector does not reveal much progress due to a lack of data. The report claims the latest statistics will only be available upon the release of the 2015/2016 NHIES.
The sector set a target to increase the number of OVCs receiving grants from 170,816 as reported in the financial year 2014/15 to 204,161 in 2015/16, in the 7th Bi-annual report (April to September 2015), the sector recorded a total number of 186,681 OVCs receiving grants. During the period under review, the sector enrolled additional 28,907 OVCs on the grant system (note that 182 children who turned 19 were removed from the grant). This brings the total of OVCs receiving grants to 215,406, thus exceeding the set target for financial year 2015/16.
Global Competitiveness Index pillars that measure the quality of infrastructure in the country show a decline in the scores rating the quality of all transport infrastructure with rail infrastructure registering the lowest scores.  The quality of roads in Namibia is found to be acceptable with a score of 5.2 out of 7. The quality of port infrastructure also produced good results with a score of 5.2 followed by air transport infrastructure at 4.6 and lastly railroad at 3.1 out of 7.
“The existing disparities in the quality of infrastructure development and maintenance as noted above continues to weaken the possibility of Namibia becoming a regional logistics hub as planned. The poor quality of the rail network places significant pressure on the national roads in terms of transportation of cargo,” the report stated.
Slow progress was also noted in upgrading the rail network to comply with the SADC axle load recommendation of 18.5 tons, as only 47 percent achieved against the NDP4 target of 70 percent. Given a baseline 46 percent, this means the sector has only upgraded about 1 percent of the rail network over the past four years.
Overall, during 2015, the transport and communication sector slowed down registering a 4.0 percent growth compared to 5.9 percent in real value added in 2014.
“In light of the above, it is worth stressing that at the current pace of infrastructure development and maintenance; it is highly unlikely that the NDP4 targets will be met by the year 2017.”
The energy sector showed unsatisfactory performance during the review period achieving only few of the set targets, according to the report, mainly due to the fact that major projects expected to result in an increase in base load energy levels have shown little or no progress, such as the Baynes Hydro Scheme where no progress has been achieved and the Kudu – Gas to Power Project where little progress has been made.
“This is worrisome as maximum energy demand was recorded at 596.842MW excluding the Skorpion Zinc Mine and 656.78MW including the mine. A total of 58 percent  of energy supply was imported through the Southern African Power Pool through numerous bilateral agreements (ZESA, ZESCO, EDM Aggreko, ESKOM), while 42 percent was produced locally mainly through the Ruacana Hydropower Scheme.”
In terms of embracing renewable energy however, the sector has made progress in terms of implementation of renewable energy initiatives.
NamPower together with the ECB has embarked on a Renewable Energy Feed in Tariff (REFIT) interim program to accommodate 14 Independent Power Producers (IPPs) domestically, each generating less than 5MW from renewable energy. These plants are expected to start generating electricity by the first quarter of 2017 and are expected to make a positive contribution to curb energy demands, though not to the extent of eliminating Namibia’s supply gap.
Despite that, the report is skeptical that the set NDP4 target to locally produce 750MW base load energy will not be reached by 2016/17.
“The sector has however, short and medium term measures in place to address the energy shortfall. Imports from the southern region continue to supply Namibia through agreements with ZESCO, ZESA, EDM and ESKOM.”
Although Namibia historically relied on electricity imports from the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) to supplement its requirements due to surplus generation available in the Region in the past, the report warned that with the change in the demand-supply balance in the region, the reliance is no longer sustainable and Namibia cannot continue to import over 50% of its energy supply.
“Government has to ensure that sustainable measures are taken and accelerated to ensure local energy production and secure electricity supply for the Namibian population. The availability of multiple renewable energy solutions at affordable levels creates a need for a paradigm shift in Namibia’s strategies on electricity supply.  Hence, the move towards large scale renewable energy initiatives should be explored.”
As the NDP 4 end draws closer, government is expected to scramble to the finish line in a bid reach more targets. Consultations for NDP5, which will be effective from April 2017 to March 2022, are already at an advanced stage.




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